Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 1.957743 2.050166 2.148395 2.261271 2.388312 2.528010 2.694873
2025-10-26 1.854755 1.973472 2.104437 2.261490 2.447381 2.664091 2.941881
2025-11-02 1.761325 1.893025 2.041840 2.225464 2.450584 2.724550 3.095746
2025-11-09 1.698199 1.840248 2.003974 2.210959 2.472683 2.803986 3.277606
2025-11-16 1.647514 1.797568 1.973430 2.200445 2.495461 2.882670 3.465753
2025-11-23 1.602861 1.758853 1.944263 2.187931 2.512320 2.952368 3.648903
2025-11-30 1.575056 1.738476 1.935554 2.199493 2.560139 3.067742 3.919815
2025-12-07 1.520192 1.682338 1.879170 2.145075 2.512858 3.039758 3.950667
2025-12-14 1.488583 1.653602 1.855834 2.132518 2.522185 3.095621 4.133973
2025-12-21 1.455548 1.621733 1.826934 2.110545 2.515885 3.125884 4.275833
2025-12-28 1.444046 1.616329 1.831558 2.133810 2.576082 3.266637 4.662718
2026-01-04 1.438961 1.618630 1.845948 2.170845 2.659072 3.455102 5.213579
2026-01-11 1.415163 1.596886 1.828674 2.163772 2.676306 3.537211 5.568050
2026-01-18 1.396666 1.581273 1.818781 2.166399 2.708468 3.650078 6.054946
2026-01-25 1.367019 1.550184 1.786818 2.135235 2.683756 3.652866 6.235560
2026-02-01 1.345878 1.529646 1.768455 2.123075 2.689066 3.714202 6.631767
2026-02-08 1.327086 1.511648 1.752891 2.114189 2.698914 3.785706 7.113297
2026-02-15 1.308589 1.493527 1.736517 2.103223 2.704255 3.848553 7.617846
2026-02-22 1.298511 1.486262 1.734814 2.114139 2.747656 3.999041 8.661231
2026-03-01 1.268811 1.452065 1.694574 2.064472 2.681669 3.898550 8.402390
2026-03-08 1.252872 1.436061 1.679486 2.053085 2.683051 3.951643 9.025727
2026-03-15 1.234764 1.416762 1.659265 2.032982 2.667607 3.964127 9.451654
2026-03-22 1.230724 1.416336 1.665620 2.054435 2.728654 4.167901 11.574380